### The Speculator’s Mirror ### part 1. By Warren A. Lyon with Scott Nakagmura and Sean Murrayg at FSJ August 2nd, 2026. "This is written from a purely common sense point of view. As to Finance, investment and trading of stocks or bonds, these financial products are expressions first of some entity's economic endeavour or activities. The stocks and bonds are financial products. They are offered for various reasons but two keys reasons usually; either for the generation of capital and then possibly for the basic monetary achievement or milestone. There is time involved; when the share or bond may be a short term endeavour and once the product is available and sold off at its IPO price, whatever it is. The issuer can never suffer disappointment since he owns all or most of the shares on the day of issuances and sale. He could de list right away. He loses nothing if he sold all on issuances day. But those who buy them at the IPO price or the market price thereafter are the gamblers. The value fluctuates and the stock itself, after achieving it's economic value and purpose to the issuer, may not have any real day to say earnings value. This is so while it is still listed on an exchange and it may, as is the case of manu stocks, lose it's usefulness or it's hype hot air value. If there is was a stock in the Japanese playing card Yugi -OH or the old scratch and sniff stickers or the Ninja Turtles, we expect those stocks to be temporary phenomenals. If it's a Pen like Bic that has captured the hearts and souls of buyers, it might be an ongoing phenomenon on the market and not a de listed and short term phenomenal; a daily useful consumable and not a fad. At the present moment, a share in Under Armour if there was one falls some where in between fad and the daily useful consumable at a $17.00 IPO and a current $14.00trading price; previously as high as $25.00 once. But, you might ask yourself why why anyone ever buy it; and if you did the seller and issuer would always thank you but it seems there is a mystery taking place. It might be in the candy and chocolate where if you say the sky is blue, you are very special; intelligent for pointing this out when you are not the someone who eats that candy very often to be in that zone or mystery all day. What is stated here is the obvious. This doesn't get into Kalshi and that new regulated betting phenomenon but it seems that Kalshi is just online betting; like Ladbrokes. It might be global also. You are not investing but wagering. There is a difference."- Whatever it is that we are trying to value in a stock is basic human phenomenon in the market and what people do or buy regularly is a good indicator of value. As such, maybe a stock for Toblerone at a $1.50 per bar on the shelf where we know people are buying it is good stock with a strong life span vs. the new clothing line called "Above The Rim". But, maybe people would really buy Above The Rim as a shoe and so we would believe any discussion about the earnings of the company per share because we can see the earnings and they are not seasonal but related to an all year every day consumable like Toblerone. FRAM makes oil filters and these are not faddish but the rise of electric vehicles means the product faces redundancy in time. This is something to think about. AT and T used to make land line phones and they still do. But there is something about AT and T; that even if they stopped selling land line phones, I might want to buy and hold that stock on the long term because it fed your imagination; childhood, present and future or it used to. We don't know what is going on. Again as the Courts have noted, Bit Coin is totally worthless but exists to abuse people's intelligence or the lack thereof. Maybe it abuses the predominant mystery manifesting in a product that you believe you need, maybe a candy that weakens your left knee caps and you have to go to physio once a month to cope but you still keep eating the candy because apparently it helps if you need to be accepted. Do you need to be accepted? Then you buy all the various versions of the Candy like Candy version 1 and Candy pro max 17. But it is killing you. So why keep buying the candy and you would need to be accepted as your knees start clicking? It's the most expensive vicious circle. Babylonians do believe and teach the Ten Commandments. This is because they suffered the consequences of any arguin'. Leithland Voyd Lyon says, ".. Isn't Jamaica about informality and we kill if people believe us and actually go to school, respecting us?" He is very, very terribly wrong. A human being could be cancelled for a $50 bullet. But they are worth white a lot as a consumer to the markets when funded at .20 cents per minute. We may as well use them for what they are worth in the market as consumers. We must value people. They constitute the market as the market's constituent elements. Click here.

### The Speculator’s Mirror ### part 1. 

By Warren A. Lyon with Scott Nakagmura and Sean Murrayg at FSJ

August 2nd, 2026.  

"This is written from a purely common sense point of view.  As to Finance, investment and trading of stocks or bonds,  these financial products are expressions first of some entity's economic endeavour or activities. The stocks and bonds are financial products.  They are offered for various reasons but two keys reasons usually; either for the generation of capital and then possibly for the basic monetary achievement or milestone.  There is time involved; when the share or bond may be a short term endeavour and once the product is available and sold off at its IPO price, whatever it is. The issuer can never suffer disappointment since he owns all or most of the shares on the day of issuances and sale.  He could  de list right away.  He loses nothing if he sold all on issuances day.  But those who buy them at the IPO price or the market price thereafter are the gamblers.  The value fluctuates and the stock itself, after achieving it's economic value  and purpose to the issuer, may not have any real day to say earnings value. This is so while it is still listed on an exchange and it may, as is the case of manu stocks, lose it's usefulness or it's hype hot air value.  If there is was a stock in  the Japanese playing card Yugi -OH or the old scratch and sniff stickers or the Ninja Turtles, we expect those stocks to be temporary phenomenals. If it's a Pen like Bic that has captured the hearts and souls of buyers, it might be an ongoing phenomenon on the market and not a de listed and short term phenomenal; a daily useful consumable and not a fad.  At the present moment, a share in Under Armour if there was one falls some where in between fad and the daily useful consumable at a $17.00 IPO  and a current $14.00trading price; previously  as high as $25.00 once. But, you might ask yourself why why anyone ever buy it;  and if you did the seller and issuer would always thank you but it seems there is a mystery taking place.  It might be in the candy and chocolate where if you say the sky is blue, you are very special; intelligent for pointing this out when you are  not the someone who eats that candy very often to be in that zone or mystery all day.  What is stated here is the obvious. This doesn't get into Kalshi and that new regulated betting phenomenon but it seems that Kalshi is just online betting; like Ladbrokes. It might be global also.  You are not investing but wagering. There is a difference."- 

Whatever it is that we are trying to value in a stock is basic human phenomenon in the market and what people do or buy regularly is a good indicator of value. As such, maybe a stock for Toblerone at a $1.50 per bar on the shelf where we know people are buying it is good stock with a strong life span vs. the new clothing  line called "Above The Rim". But, maybe people would really buy Above The Rim as a shoe and so we would believe any discussion about the earnings of the company per share because we can see the earnings and they are not seasonal but related to an all year every day consumable like Toblerone. 

FRAM makes oil filters and these are not faddish but the rise of electric vehicles means the product faces redundancy in time.  This is something to think about. AT and T used to make land line phones and they still do. But there is something about AT and T; that even if they stopped selling land line phones, I might want to buy and hold that stock on the long term because it fed your imagination; childhood, present and future or it used to. We don't know what is going on. 

Again as the Courts have noted, Bit Coin is totally worthless but exists to abuse people's intelligence or the lack thereof. Maybe it abuses the predominant mystery manifesting in a product that you believe you need, maybe a candy that weakens your left knee caps and you have to go to physio once a month to cope but you still keep eating the candy because apparently it helps if you need to be accepted. Do you need to be accepted? Then you buy all the various versions of the Candy like Candy version 1 and Candy pro max 17. But it is killing you. So why keep buying the candy and you would need to be accepted as your knees start clicking?   It's the most expensive vicious circle.  

 Babylonians do believe and teach the Ten Commandments.  This is because they suffered the consequences of any arguin'.  Leithland Voyd Lyon says, ".. Isn't Jamaica about informality and we kill if people believe us and actually go to school, respecting us?" 

He is very, very terribly wrong. 

A human being could be cancelled for a $50 bullet. But they are worth white a lot as a consumer to the markets when funded at .20 cents per minute. We may as well use them for what they are worth in the market as consumers. We must value people. They constitute the market as the market's constituent elements. 

Click here. 

### The Speculator’s Mirror part 2. 

It remains an elementary truth of political economy—though one routinely obscured by the technical jargon of modern exchange trading—that equities and debt obligations are not mere tokens in a casino. They are, first and foremost, the financial expressions of tangible economic enterprise. A corporation offers stocks or bonds to the public for clear and practical reasons: primarily to raise productive capital, finance expansion, or mark an institutional milestone.

For the issuer, the essential economic transaction concludes the moment the underwriter sells the security at its Initial Public Offering. The capital is secured, the corporate treasury is replenished, and the founders have monetized their endeavors. What occurs thereafter in the secondary market is a separate drama entirely. The public buyers who bid up these securities on exchange floors are no longer funding the enterprise directly; rather, they are accepting the risks of ongoing price discovery. In many instances, they are participating in little more than refined speculation.

Once a stock achieves its primary economic purpose for the issuing entity, its secondary market price may detach from its daily earning power. The paper continues to trade, yet its market capitalization frequently reflects hype and transient sentiment rather than discounted future cash flows.

The longevity of that market value depends entirely on the nature of the underlying product:

 * **The Ephemeral Fad:** Consider cultural novelties such as scratch-and-sniff stickers, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, or Yu-Gi-Oh playing cards. Had pure-play equities existed for these pop-culture phenomena, rational observers would have treated them as temporary surges of speculative hot air—destined to collapse the moment consumer whimsy drifted elsewhere.

 * **The Durable Staple:** Conversely, an enterprise like Bic—producing simple, everyday ballpoint pens—rests upon indispensable utility. It represents an ongoing consumable rather than a fleeting mania, generating predictable, unglamorous cash flows year after year.

Most publicly traded entities occupy the uncertain terrain between these two poles. Consider a brand like Under Armour. Floating its IPO at $17.00, climbing to peak highs near $25.00, and later settling around $14.00, it illustrates the mystery of shifting market enthusiasm. The issuer received its capital long ago and expressed its gratitude to early subscribers. Yet subsequent buyers are left attempting to discern whether they hold an enduring consumer staple or a fading fashion trend. Chasing such momentum often requires a suspension of fundamental analysis—akin to pointing at a blue sky and expecting applause for stating the obvious, even as the business struggles to generate earnings commensurate with its valuation.

This blurring of financial activity and pure chance has reached its zenith with the rise of regulated prediction exchanges like Kalshi, alongside traditional global bookmakers such as Ladbrokes. Here, the pretense of capital formation is abandoned entirely. On these platforms, no enterprise is funded, no factory is built, and no productive capacity is expanded.

We ought to call things by their right names. Kalshi and its peers do not offer investment products; they offer structured wagering. Participating in an enterprise’s long-term capital formation is investment. Betting on binary event outcomes or secondary market price ticks is gambling. Wall Street—and the public that feeds it—would do well to keep that fundamental distinction in view.

FSJ, August 2nd, 2026.